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KIF가 매년 열는 금융동향 및 전망 세미나. 11월 8일에 있었네요. 관련한 자료가 올라왔습니다.
매년 하는 행사이니까 프로그램도 비슷합니다. 2022년 프로그램은 다음과 같습니다.
제1주제 : 2023년 경제전망
제2주제 : 금융시장 환경변화와 전망
제3주제 : 은행산업 환경변화와 전망
제3주제 : 디지털금융 환경변화와 과제
제4주제 : 보험·비은행 산업 환경변화와 전망
‘금융시장 환경변화와 전망’중 부동산시장 및 관련 금융익스포져가 무척이나 큰 비중으로 다루어지고 있습니다.
금융투자업은 ‘금융시장 환경변화와 전망’에서 마지막으로 다룹니다. 여의도 구조조정 소문 그리고 기사들에서 다루었던 내용과 큰 차이가 없습니다.
디지털금융 환경변화와 과제은 금융위원회가 추진하고 있는 핀테크정책을 다룹니다. 이중에서 ‘오픈플랫폼 판매중개’는 빅테크와 금융회사이에서 줄타기한 금융위원회가 내놓은 금융회사의 플랫폼 업무 활성화 및 온라인 플랫폼 금융상품 중개업 시범운영에서 기인합니다. 금융회사의 플랫폼 규제를 풀고 대신 온라인플랫폼이 금융상품 중개를 할 수 있도록 하는 내용입니다.
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다음은 가끔 자료를 소개하는 국제금융센터의 2023년 세계경제 · 국제금융시장 전망 및 주요 이슈입니다. 이미 국제금융센터의 하반기 경제 전망에서 2022년 하반기 자료를 소개하였는데 이번에는 2023년입니다. 2023년 분석하는 키워드는 글로벌 통화전쟁, 인플레이션, 지정학적 충돌입니다.
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월스트리트의 유명한 투자은행도 2023년 전망보고서를 내놓습니다. LinkedIn이나 Twitter에 올라온 글을 기준으로 검색해서 확인한 보고서들입니다. 먼저 Goldman Sachs. 2023 Outlooks에서 세계경재, 미국경제, 유럽경제, 아시아 그리고 일본과 중국을 각각 다룹니다. 그중에서 Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle Is Different입니다. 결론부분입니다.
Some Progress, But Still an Uncertain World
The key economic question for 2023 is whether central banks will be able to bring down inflation to more acceptable levels without a recession, or at least without a deep recession. We are reasonably optimistic, but there are substantial risks to our view.
One risk is that inflation pressures simply remain pervasive enough that central banks have no choice but to keep tightening aggressively. If so, a recession might become unavoidable, not just in Europe but also in the US. The recent news flow has reduced this risk slightly in the US, as the labor market continues to adjust and inflation has begun to slow. But the picture is not uniform. Central banks in Europe and those EM economies where inflation is still increasing may be forced into further tightening in an environment of exchange rate depreciation and rising inflation expectations.
The other main risk is that underlying inflation does come down, but central banks are late in recognizing the improvement because they are too focused on lagging indicators of inflation such as CPI shelter inflation. In the US, we have recently become a little less concerned about this risk as well. Fed officials have made it clear that they are not exclusively focused on the CPI rent numbers but also on more leading indicators such as asking rents on new leases, which have slowed sharply in recent months. Moreover, many central banks have either already slowed their hiking pace or signaled that they will do so soon. This reduces the risk of overtightening as it will allow for more time to assess the impact of higher rates on the economy.
또다른 보고서는 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios입니다. 장기투자자를 위한 보고서이지만 다양한 부분을 정리해서 소개합니다. Full Report를 받으려면 로그인을 하라고 하는데 구글링을 하시면 PDF를 받을 수 있습니다. 그래서 참조화면입니다. 원문을 올리면 미국에서 저작권위반이라고 연락옵니다 ㅠㅠ
개인적으로 관심이 갔던 부분은 세계화(Glovalization)입니다. 다른 보고서에 없는 내용입니다.
Three possible paths forward
The current state of globalization is a single global economy that is fraying at the edges. Resistance to a “one world” framework has steadily increased along political lines as countries seek greater protectionist measures. Going forward, collaboration in trade, economics and finance could take several different paths. For this analysis, we outline three potential outcomes:
Globalization renewed: International organizations again take the lead in global collaboration on trade and regulation, keeping globalization on track (albeit at a slower pace than in the late 20th century). Global issues, such as tackling climate change or addressing global health challenges, prompt global cooperation. Trade barriers continue to fall, and a recognition of economic mutual interests eclipses nationalistic impulses
A multi-polar world: This is the most likely outcome, in our view. International cooperation continues, but political and cultural alignments lead to the formation of a few large core trading blocs. These new blocs draw in other countries based on what they perceive to be their national interest. One potential structure could have the U.S. and Western Europe in one bloc and China and Russia in another. Meanwhile, other countries and regions, such as emerging economies in Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, opportunistically trade with both sides. This would dictate the flow of trade, technology and investment, and create a less efficient global economy as multiple technology standards emerge. ountries won’t stop trading, but what they trade may shift. We could also see that innovation and cooperation to solve global problems, such as climate change, may bind nations together in a multi-polar world Geopolitical alliances are just one dimension of this multi-polar world. It could also be shaped by the concentration of consumer power, with a growing number of emerging
economies becoming more dominant. In this scenario, multinational companies would continue to invest directly in these growing markets and rely less on servicing them from offshore locations.Full fragmentation: Cooperation falters with further fragmentation in production and distribution. Under this scenario, globalization unwinds as nations emphasize domestic production of goods and services and increase the use of tariffs and other barriers to trade, even among countries that are politically aligned. Immigration is generally discouraged. This would imply both higher costs and lower efficiency, and by reducing economic relationships among nations, fragmentation could lead to greater international conflict.
